Blackjack – Opposition Betting 2
My trip was a total disaster. I couldn't have asked for better conditions, but within about 3 hours, I'd lost just about my whole playing bankroll. I was spreading quarters from one-to-four and lost $2,500. Looking back on it, the majority of my losing bets were high ($100) bets, so I guess I really only lost about 25 big bets, rather than 100 small bets. Still, I don't see how this could have happened. What's worse, almost the entire loss occurred in my last half-hour of play against the same dealer.
He was dealing out about 3 decks and every shoe the count kept climbing. By the time he'd shuffle, the running count would be between +15 and +20! Somehow, I just kept losing. After three shoes like this, I was broke. I use the Hi-Lo count, so I figure that by the time he shuffled, my advantage was somewhere between 7% and 10%! It seems to me the only hand I ever played at a disadvantage was the first round after the shuffle. Then the count would go up, and it would just keep going higher. How could I lose with such hot decks?
He could lose because this player had one glaring misconception about card counting.
The reason that you bet bigger when the count is high is because your count indicates that the remaining cards contain a disproportionate number of tens and aces. You place a big bet because the odds are in your favor that these high cards will be dealt. As these cards come out of the deck, you make your money. You will be dealt more naturals; your doubling down and pair-splitting will pay off more; the dealer will bust his stiffs more frequently. You don't bet big simply because the count is high, you bet big because the count should come down.
If the count doesn't come down then it must mean that those excess high cards in the deck did not come out. If the count continues to climb, then not only are the excess high cards not being dealt, but a disproportionate number of low cards continue to be dealt, much to your disadvantage.
If the dealer shuffles when the count is +15 to +20, then this means that all of those high cards are clumped together in the undealt portion of the shoe. If this happened three shoes in a row, then contrary to what this player's count indicated, he never played with an advantage over the house. When the count stays high, your high bets are all for naught.
When your count goes up in a single-deck game, it is far more likely to come down than in a multi-deck game. It is this volatility that makes the one-deck games so profitable. Ideally, you make small bets while the count is rising, and large bets while it is coming back down.
Had this player been in a shoe game in which the count kept going down to about -15 to -20 prior to every shuffle, then more than likely, ironic as it may seem, he probably would have won more money than he would have lost, since this situation would indicate that all the excess low cards were clumped in the undealt portion of the shoe. Such dumpings of cards often occur purely through chance. If the dealer were purposely clumping high cards, then cutting them out of play through sleight of hand, this would be cheating.
DEFINITION
Opposition betting is sizing your bets so that it looks like you're raising your bets when the count is going down and lowering them when the count is going up.
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